Application of Benford’s Law to the Argentine whitemouth croaker (Micropogonias furnieri) fishery
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47193/mafis.3742024010710Keywords:
Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), fisheries management, fisheries resourcesAbstract
In the field of statistical data, both in the natural and social sciences, it has been observed that the distribution of the first, second and first two digits in real data frequently follows a pattern known as ‘Benford’s law’. This law has recently been used as a tool to identify anomalies in different databases, suggesting in some cases the possibility of fraud. It was observed that ‘genuine’ data digits tend to follow the law, while manipulated data digits do not. In this work, we explore their applicability beyond the financial sphere, investigating whether they can detect irregularities in scientific data, specifically in the official catch statistics of the Argentine whitemouth croaker (Micropogonias furnieri) fishery. To this end, we compare the frequency of the first, second and first pair of digits of the capture with the expected distribution using the mean absolute deviation (MAD). We implemented a methodology based on Monte Carlo simulations and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test to calculate critical values of the MAD conformance test, addressing the unique nature of data and the variability in sample size. The conducted analysis suggested the presence of anomalies that could denote unusual patterns warranting further detailed investigation. In the field of assessment, management/administration, and conservation of fishing resources, the reliability of catch data is essential. The use of Benford’s law could optimize the selection of information used to develop indicators and reduce uncertainty in estimating the population status of resources.
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