Marine and Fishery sciences 39 (2): xxx-xxx (2026)

https://doi.org/10.47193/mas.3922026010404

ABSTRACT. The effects of climate change on mackerel species are highlighted in this review,

with particular attention given to changes in spawning, distribution, physiology, and habitat loss. The

PRISMA method was used to conduct a systematic literature review that examined 257 peer-reviewed

publications from Scopus and Web of Science from 1990 to 2025. Results showed clustering of

texts, keywords, and titles based on search terms like climate change vulnerability, impact, mackerel,

southeast Asia, and world. High occurrence and link strength showed clusters of: 1) Oceanography

and marine ecosystem, 2) Species-specic regional studies, 3) Fisheries and human dimensions and,

4) Fisheries management. Major study themes were found using R bibliometrix and thematic anal-

yses based on VOSviewer: adaptation technique, marine ecosystems, stock assessment, and shing

management. Sea-surface temperature, environmental monitoring, and resilience in marine resource

management are highlighted in recent research trends. Traditional sheries are being challenged by

the altered migration and spawning patterns of mackerel due to rising sea surface temperatures and

changing currents, necessitating the implementation of exible and regionally coordinated techniques.

Growth, recruitment, and survival are all impacted by these changes because of decreased oxygen,

productivity, and prey availability. Conicts over sheries may also occur as a result of transboundary

sh stock migrations. Adaptive management is still limited despite increasing research because of a

lack of institutional support, resources, and monitoring. It is crucial to ll important research gaps

in areas including prey dynamics, socioeconomic resilience, and the effects of climate change on

mackerel biology. Stronger governance, regional collaboration, and policies that strike a balance be-

tween socioeconomic demands and conservation will be necessary to ensure long-term sustainability.

Key words: Systematic literature review, PRISMA method, sheries management.

El papel de la escolarización en la conguración de la huella pesquera en Grecia: evidencia

de un enfoque ARDL aumentado

RESUMEN. En esta revisión se destacan los efectos del cambio climático en las especies de caballa,

con especial atención a los cambios en el desove, la distribución, la siología y la pérdida de hábitat.

REVIEW

Bibliometric insight of climate change impact on mackerel (Family

Scombridae): global research trend and regional gaps in southeast Asia

MohaMMad ekraMul haque1, shahadat hossain2, tun nurul aiMi Mat JaaFar1, ying giat seah1, 3,

siti azizah Mohd nor4, nazia abdul kadar5, nur Fadli6, darlina Md naiM7, helena khatoon8 and ahasan habib1,*

1Faculty of Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia. 2Higher Institution Center of Excellence

(HICoE), Institute of Tropical Aquaculture and Fisheries, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia. 3Fish Division, South China

Sea Repository and Reference Centre, Institute of Oceanography and Environment, Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia.

4Institute of Climate Adaptation and Marine Biotechnology (ICAMB), Universiti Malaysia Terengganu, Terengganu, Malaysia. 5Higher Institution

Centre of Excellence (HICoE), Borneo Marine Research Institute, Universiti Malaysia Sabah, 88400 - Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia. 6Faculty

of Marine and Fisheries, Universitas Syiah Kuala, 23111 - Banda Aceh, Indonesia. 7School of Biological Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia,

11800 - Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. 8Chattogram Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, 4225 - Chattogram, Bangladesh.

ORCID Mohammad Ekramul Haque https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9124-0493, Shahadat Hossain https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8273-1135,

Tun Nurul Aimi Mat Jaafar https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3032-0545, Ying Giat Seah https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2976-4448,

Siti Azizah Mohd Nor https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9890-9612, Nazia Abdul Kadar https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4362-3059,

Nur Fadli https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6845-1383, Darlina Md Naim https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7943-9547,

Helena Khatoon https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5896-0213, Ahasan Habib https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1702-6111

Marine and

Fishery Sciences

MAFIS

*Correspondence:

a.habib@umt.edu.my

Received: 20 October 2025

Accepted: 3 January 2026

ISSN 2683-7595 (print)

ISSN 2683-7951 (online)

https://ojs.inidep.edu.ar

Journal of the Instituto Nacional de

Investigación y Desarrollo Pesquero

(INIDEP)

This work is licensed under a Creative

Commons Attribution-

NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0

International License

Marine and Fishery sciences 39 (2): xxx-xxx (2026)

INTRODUCTION

Climate change is reshaping marine ecosystems

through rising sea temperature, altered circulation

patterns, acidication, and the degradation of crit-

ical coastal habitats (Islam et al. 2020; Habib et al.

2025). These environmental changes inuence met-

abolic processes, growth patterns, and reproductive

success in many marine species, particularly pelag-

ic shes that depend on predictable oceanographic

conditions for spawning, feeding, and migration

(Pörtner et al. 2014). Ocean acidication further

disrupts physiological and sensory functions, po-

tentially altering predator-prey interactions and

competitive dynamics (Munday et al. 2009). In

the context of these changing conditions, adaptive

and ecosystem-based sheries management has be-

come essential, especially in regions where coastal

communities depend heavily on marine resources

for food security and livelihoods (Pinsky and Man-

tua 2014; FAO 2018).

Mackerel (Family Scombridae) are among the

most ecologically and economically signicant

pelagic shes in southeast Asia. They contribute

substantially to industrial, artisanal, and small-

scale sheries and remain an important source of

affordable animal protein throughout the region

(FAO 2018). In southeast Asia, Indian mackerel

(Rastrelliger kanagurta) and Spanish mackerel

(Scomberomorus commerson) dominate regional

captures due to their high abundance, diverse culi-

nary applications, and cultural signicance (Wang

and Wu 2025). In particular, Spanish mackerel

serves as a vital source of revenue sustaining their

livelihoods and meeting local protein demand of

coastal shermen in countries like Indonesia, the

Philippines, and Malaysia (Wang and Wu 2025).

In recent years, research on the relationship be-

tween climate change and sheries has moved

from correlative observations to process-based

and ensemble projections that measure economic

consequences, range shifts, and production losses

of pelagic shes, including mackerels (Free et al.

2019). With the projection of seasonal redistribu-

tions and changed catch potential under mid to late

century scenarios, species distribution and habitat

suitability modeling for scombrids has grown sig-

nicantly (Sun et al. 2024). Despite long-standing

concerns about overexploitation, recent regional

assessments suggest relatively stable or increasing

catches in several southeast Asian countries, with

a signicant proportion of pelagic stocks classi-

ed as undershed compared to global averages

(Fabro 2020).

Se utilizó el método PRISMA para realizar una revisión sistemática de la literatura que examinó 257 publicaciones revisadas por pares de

Scopus y Web of Science entre 1990 y 2025. Los resultados mostraron agrupamiento de textos, palabras clave y títulos con base en términos

de búsqueda como vulnerabilidad al cambio climático, impacto, caballa, sudeste asiático y mundo. La alta ocurrencia y la fuerza de enlace

mostraron agrupaciones de: 1) Oceanografía y ecosistema marino, 2) Estudios regionales especícos de especies, 3) Pesca y dimensiones

humanas y, 4) Gestión pesquera. Se encontraron los principales temas de estudio utilizando R bibliometrix y análisis temáticos basados

en VOSviewer: técnica de adaptación, ecosistemas marinos, evaluación de stock y gestión pesquera. La temperatura supercial del mar,

el monitoreo ambiental y la resiliencia en la gestión de los recursos marinos se destacan en las tendencias de investigación recientes. La

pesca tradicional se ve amenazada por la alteración de los patrones de migración y desove de la caballa debido al aumento de la tempera-

tura supercial del mar y las corrientes cambiantes, lo que exige la implementación de técnicas exibles y coordinadas a nivel regional. El

crecimiento, el reclutamiento y la supervivencia se ven afectados por estos cambios debido a la disminución del oxígeno, la productividad

y la disponibilidad de presas. También pueden surgir conictos pesqueros como resultado de las migraciones transfronterizas de poblaciones

de peces. La gestión adaptativa aún es limitada a pesar del aumento de la investigación debido a la falta de apoyo institucional, recursos y

monitoreo. Es crucial cubrir importantes lagunas de investigación en áreas como la dinámica de las presas, la resiliencia socioeconómica y

los efectos del cambio climático en la biología de la caballa. Una gobernanza más sólida, la colaboración regional y políticas que logren un

equilibrio entre las demandas socioeconómicas y la conservación serán necesarias para garantizar la sostenibilidad a largo plazo.

Palabras clave: Revisión sistemática de la literatura, método PRISMA, gestión pesquera.

Haque et al.: Climate CHange impaCt, global researCH trend, and regional gaps in soutHeast asia 3

Geographic location, economic reliance on sh-

eries, and great biodiversity make southeast Asia

(i.e. the Philippines) especially susceptible to these

effects (Macusi et al. 2020, 2025a, 2025b). De-

spite supporting some of the world’s most diverse

and productive ecosystems, this region is already

seeing a decline in sh populations, a shift in the

distribution of species, and an increase in the fre-

quency of extreme weather events (Cheung et al.

2010; Barange et al. 2014). Communities that de-

pend on shing are facing increasing uncertainty

as their livelihood are threatened by shifting spe-

cies ranges, decreased catch rates, and ecosystem

changes (Sumaila et al. 2011). Instead of combin-

ing population dynamics with climate forecasts at

management unit scales (EEZs and shared stocks),

the majority of regional studies are still short-term

or single gear and concentrate on establishing a

correlation between SST or ENSO and catch rates

(Ren et al. 2025; Vu and Nguyen 2025). In the

South China Sea and eastern Indian Ocean, there

are currently few quantitative projections speci-

cally for Indian mackerel (Rastrelliger kanagurta)

and Narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (S. commer-

son). Most existing studies rely on short-term cor-

relations between temperature indices and sheries

production, with limited integration of ecological

processes, population connectivity, or climate-driv-

en redistribution across national borders (Kamaru-

zzaman et al. 2021; Pan et al. 2024). Despite pol-

icy reports calling for climate-ready management,

there is a severe implementation gap because few

southeast Asian sheries have adopted harvest

control regulations, early warning indicators, or

scenario-based socioeconomic planning for small-

scale shing operations (Talbot et al. 2024).

This review critically assessed the breadth and

depth of southeast Asian contributions by contrast-

ing regional studies with the global literature and

synthesizing global research trends on the effects

of climate change on mackerels (Family Scombri-

dae) using a bibliometric approach. It highlights

important theme gaps, unexplored study areas, and

difculties in converting science into adaptive man-

agement by contrasting regional studies with the

worldwide literature. In addition to generating in-

sights for more general worldwide comparisons, the

analysis aimed to establish evidence of stronger cli-

mate-resilient sheries governance in southeast Asia.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Search strategy

The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic

Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) for sys-

tematic literature review was used (Moher et al.

2015). The four stages of this process are identi-

cation, screening, eligibility assessment, and in-

clusion. The Web of Science and Scopus database

search phrases for the year 1990 through 2025 were

used to identify every article. In order to ensure

access to reliable sources and citation monitoring

to uncover important studies and trends, Web of

Science and Scopus were chosen for their depend-

able, high-quality control through rigorous peer-re-

viewed articles across elds like environmental sci-

ence, sheries, and climate change. Additionally,

these databases offer sophisticated search capabil-

ities for effective, methodical evaluation and analy-

sis, avoiding duplication from less reliable sources.

The following two strings were used for article

searching:

- Global: (‘Climate change’ OR ‘Climate im-

pact’ OR ‘Climate vulnerability’ OR ‘Climate

variability’ OR ‘Global warming’ OR ‘Ocean

warming’ OR ‘Environmental change’ OR

‘ENSO’ OR ‘El Niño’ OR ‘La Niña’ OR ‘Ex-

treme events’ OR ‘Marine heatwave’ OR ‘Ocean

acidication’) AND (‘Mackerel’ OR ‘Tuna’ OR

‘Bonito’ OR ‘Scombridae’ OR ‘Scomber’ OR

‘Rastrelliger’ OR ‘Scomberomorus’ OR ‘Kat-

suwonus’ OR ‘Thunnus’) AND (‘Fisheries’ OR

‘Fishery management’ OR ‘Stock assessment’

OR ‘Marine resources’ OR ‘Distribution shift’

Marine and Fishery sciences 39 (2): xxx-xxx (2026)

Screening and duplicate removal

A total of 1,337 records were retrieved. Using

automated duplicate detection in R (Bibliometrix)

and manual verication, 680 duplicated records

were removed. Titles, abstracts, and keywords of

the remaining articles were screened for relevance.

The eligibility assessment excluded articles unrelat-

ed to climate-change impacts on mackerel. A total

of 257 articles met all criteria and were included

for full bibliometric analysis. Extracted informa-

tion included title, abstract, author keywords, index

keywords, year of publication, journal, authorship,

afliations, citations, and document type.

Preprocessing and cleaning

Preprocessing and data cleaning followed

standardized bibliometric procedures to ensure

reproducibility. Keyword normalization includ-

ed converting all terms to lowercase, removing

punctuation, stemming plural forms, and merging

synonymous expressions such as ‘climate variabil-

ity’ and ‘climate-variability’ or ‘distribution shift’

and ‘range shift’. Generic stop-words (e.g. ‘model,’

‘study,’ ‘impact,’ ‘analysis’) and non-informative

geographic abbreviations were removed to avoid

noise in clustering. Author keywords referring to

the same species or taxonomic group were har-

monized by consolidating variations (for example,

Scomber japonicus and S. japonicus were unied

as ‘Scomber japonicus’).

VOSviewer parameters

Co-occurrence network maps for keywords, au-

thors, and countries were generated using standard-

ized parameters (Van Eck and Waltman 2010). Full

counting was applied as the counting method, and

association strength was used for normalization.

Thresholds were set at a minimum of ve occur-

rences for keywords, two for authors, and three for

countries. Network clustering followed a resolution

value of 1.00, and layouts were produced using the

OR ‘Range shift’ OR ‘Habitat suitability’ OR

‘Species redistribution’ OR ‘Larval dispersal’ OR

‘Recruitment’).

- Southeast Asia: (‘Climate change’ OR ‘Cli-

mate impact’ OR ‘Climate vulnerability’ OR

‘Climate variability’ OR ‘Global warming’ OR

‘Ocean warming’ OR ‘Environmental change’

OR ‘ENSO’ OR ‘El Niño’ OR ‘La Niña’ OR

‘Extreme events’ OR ‘Marine heatwave*’ OR

‘Ocean acidication’) AND (‘Mackerel’ OR

‘Tuna’ OR ‘Bonito’ OR ‘Scombridae’ OR

‘Scomber’ OR ‘Rastrelliger’ OR ‘Scombero-

morus’ OR ‘Katsuwonus’ OR ‘Thunnus’) AND

(‘Fisheries’ OR ‘Fishery management’ OR ‘Stock

assessment’ OR ‘Marine resources’ OR ‘Distri-

bution shift’ OR ‘Range shift’ OR ‘Habitat suit-

ability’ OR ‘Species redistribution’ OR ‘Larval

dispersal’ OR ‘Recruitment’) AND (‘Southeast

Asia’ OR ‘South China Sea’ OR ‘Indian Ocean’

OR ‘Eastern Indian Ocean’ OR ‘Coral Triangle’

OR ‘Indonesia’ OR ‘Philippines’ OR ‘Malaysia’

OR ‘Thailand’ OR ‘Vietnam’ OR ‘Brunei’ OR

‘Singapore’ OR ‘Cambodia’ OR ‘Myanmar’).

Inclusion and exclusion criteria

Studies were included if they were written in

English, focused on climate-change related impacts

on mackerel or related Scombridae taxa, provided

primary research data relevant to sheries, popu-

lation dynamics, or distributional change, and con-

tained analyzable metadata such as titles, abstracts,

and keywords. Review papers, book chapters, con-

ference summaries, or theses were excluded be-

cause this bibliometric analysis aimed to examine

trends in primary research rather than secondary

syntheses including review articles would dispro-

portionately inuence co-occurrence networks by

introducing broad synthetic keywords, obscuring

patterns emerging from empirical studies. Publi-

cations were also excluded if they were not related

to climate change or mackerel (Scombridae), or if

they were non-original research outputs such as

policy briefs or news articles.

Haque et al.: Climate CHange impaCt, global researCH trend, and regional gaps in soutHeast asia 5

LinLog and Modularity algorithms. To improve in-

terpretability, edges with a total link strength below

2 were removed from the nal visualizations.

Bibliometrix parameters (R)

Bibliometric analyses were conducted using

standardized Bibliometrix (R package version

4.3.1) (Aria and Cuccurullo 2017). The ‘biblio-

clean ()’ function was applied to remove empty or

inconsistent elds, and ‘convert2df ()’ was used

to merge ‘Web of Science’ and ‘Scopus’ exports

into a unied dataset. Descriptive indicators were

generated with ‘biblioAnalysis ()’, while themat-

ic structure and evolution were examined using

‘thematicMap ()’. Network visualizations for

keywords, countries, and co-authorship patterns

were produced with ‘networkPlot ()’. Association

strength was used for normalization, and minimum

frequency thresholds were set at three occurrences

for terms in titles and abstracts and ve occurrences

for keywords.

Thematic and qualitative analysis

Keyword co-occurrence clusters were interpret-

ed to identify dominant themes. Titles and abstracts

of all included studies (n = 257) were reviewed to

produce thematic summaries consistent with bib-

liometric clusters. Syntheses were based solely on

the patterns derived from bibliometric results.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Global research trend on climate change and

mackerel (Family Scombridae)

Global research on climate change and mackerel

is rich and multidisciplinary, integrating species

biology, oceanography, ecosystem studies, and

shery management. However, regional gaps, es-

pecially in areas like southeast Asia, highlight the

need for more localized, policy-relevant research

to address region-specic vulnerabilities and ad-

aptation strategies.

From 1990 to 2025, there was a noticeable rise in

the number of scholarly articles about the climate

change impact on mackerel in the world (Figure 1).

China has 24 articles, which is the most in amount.

Other countries are Japan, the United States, Aus-

tralia, and various European countries, all of which

have moderate contributions. Some countries, such

as a large portion of South America, Africa, and

parts of Asia, have made little to no contribution.

The bar graph differentiates between Single

Country Publications (SCP) and Multiple Coun-

try Publications (MCP), which displays the coun-

try-by-country distribution of publications related

to this study topic (Figure 2). While China has

some collaborative works, the majority of its pub-

lications are single-country publications (SCP).

Norway and Korea are next to China, both mak-

ing signicant contributions, especially in the area

of international collaboration (MCP). With a bal-

anced combination of SCP and MCP, the UK, USA,

and Australia likewise exhibit signicant research

output. With a comparatively higher percentage

of MCP, other European countries such as Spain,

Denmark, Iceland, and Portugal make moderate

contributions, suggesting active international col-

laboration. With fewer articles, Malaysia and India

appear to have a lesser but developing eld of study

in this area. Only one or two publications are con-

tributed by countries like Belgium and Morocco.

While many other countries, particularly in Europe

and North America, actively contribute through in-

ternational collaborations, this gure shows that

China dominates the research output. Southeast

Asia, except Malaysia, is insufciently represented,

suggesting a research vacuum in the area.

There was very little research activity during

the years 1987 to 2007, with only 0 to 2 articles

published annually, suggesting that the topic did

not receive much attention worldwide at that time-

period (Figure 3). From 2008 to 2013, there was

a steady rise, with publication counts exceeding

Marine and Fishery sciences 39 (2): xxx-xxx (2026)

Figure 2. Most relevant countries that published articles on this topic from 1990 to 2025.

Figure 1. Number of scientic publications on the effect of climate change on mackerel populations globally from 1990 to 2025.

China

Korea

Norway

United Kingdom

USA

Australia

Canada

Spain

Japan

Iceland

Denmark

India

Portugal

Italy

Malaysia

Sweden

Chile

France

Morocco

Belgium

Countries

No. of documents

0510 15 20 25

Single country publications Multiple country publications

Haque et al.: Climate CHange impaCt, global researCH trend, and regional gaps in soutHeast asia 7

5 to 7 annually, indicating the start of a growing

interest. As a result of increased global concern

over the effects of climate change on sheries, re-

search output increased dramatically from 2014 to

2021, reaching a peak from 2019 to 2021 with over

15 articles annually. There has been a decrease in

the number of articles published in recent years,

from 2022 to 2025, which may be partially due

to insufcient data availability. The graph shows

that, from late 2000, research on this topic has

grown dramatically, reaching a high in the year

2019 to 2021, coinciding with the global upsurge

in sheries and climate change research. It is im-

portant to be cautious when interpreting the fall

after 2021 because it can be the result of database

indexing delays rather than a real decline in re-

search productivity.

With 11 articles each, Frontiers in Marine Sci-

ence and Marine Ecology Progress Series were the

two primary sources in producing research on this

particular eld (Figure 4). Fisheries Oceanography

and ICES Journal of Marine Science came in after

them with 9 articles each. Each journal, Fisheries

Research and Ocean Science, had 5 articles. After

that, 4 and 3 articles were given by the following

journals.

Leading academic and research institutions con-

tribute to the eld determining whether the subject

is dispersed throughout numerous institutions or

is dominated by a small number of them (Figure

5). With 37 articles, the Institute of Marine Re-

search is the leading contributor. Ocean Univer-

sity of China comes in second with 35 articles.

Shanghai Ocean University comes after that with

31 publications. Mid-level contributors include Jeju

National University with 11 articles, the Institute

Maurice-Lamontagne with 10 articles, and the fol-

lowing institutes.

Tian Y is the most prolic author on this topic,

having published 7 articles (Figure 6). Signicant

contributions were made by the four authors: Chen

X, Jung S, Li J, and Liu Y, each of whom published

6 articles. Then comes Jansen T and Oskarsson GJ,

each with 5 articles.

Research gap: southeast Asia context

While major oceanic basins like the Pacic

and Atlantic Oceans are represented, southeast

Asia does not explicitly appear, suggesting a po-

tential regional gap in research coverage. Rising

sea surface temperature, more frequent extreme

Figure 3. Annual scientic production over time.

Artlicles

Years

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025

Marine and Fishery sciences 39 (2): xxx-xxx (2026)

weather events, and ocean acidication are hav-

ing a major inuence on marine biodiversity and

sheries production (Islam et al. 2020). Southeast

Asia is among the most vulnerable regions to cli-

mate change (Sumaila et al. 2011). A commercially

valuable species in the area, Spanish mackerel (S.

commerson), suffers difculties because of shifting

oceanographic conditions that affect their spawning

cycles, migration patterns, and availability of prey

(Cheung et al. 2013).

The network was generated in VOSviewer us-

ing the association-strength normalization and full

counting method. Keywords were included if they

appeared at least 5 times in the combined Scop-

us-Web of Science dataset (n = 257 articles; n = 54

keywords). Links with a total link strength < 2 were

Figure 4. Most relevant sources of publications.

Frontiers in Marine Science

Marine Ecology Progress Series

Fisheries Oceanography

ICES Journal of Marine Science

Fisheries Research

Ocean Science Journal

Deep Sea Research

Progress in Oceanography

Journal of Fish Biology

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology

No. of documents

Sources

6 9

Figure 5. Most relevant afliations of publications.

Institute of Marine Research

Ocean University of China

Shanghai Ocean University

Jeju National University

Institute Maurice-Lamontagne

Basque Research and Technology Alliance

Memorial University of Newfoundland

National Taiwan Ocean University

Technical University of Denmark

Flanders Marine Institute

Articles

010 20 30

Afﬁliations

Haque et al.: Climate CHange impaCt, global researCH trend, and regional gaps in soutHeast asia 9

removed for clarity. Nodes represent keywords, and

node size reects keyword frequency. Colors repre-

sent clusters produced using the VOSviewer (Lou-

vain-type) modularity-based clustering algorithm,

identifying major thematic groups: 1) Blue cluster:

climate-ecology interactions (e.g. climate change,

population dynamics, ecosystems). 2) Green clus-

ter: distribution and environmental drivers (e.g. sea

surface temperature, climate models, population

distribution). 3) Yellow-orange cluster: sher-

ies-focused terms (e.g. tuna shery, CPUE, catch

statistics). 4) Turquoise cluster: species-level tax-

onomy and biology (e.g. S. japonicus, S. scombrus,

pelagic sh). The spatial arrangement of nodes was

produced using the LinLog layout algorithm, which

emphasizes cluster separation and inter-cluster link

structure. A high network modularity (Q = 0.62),

high average intra-cluster density (0.41), and a low

proportion of inter-cluster links (18%), indicating

strong internal cohesion and limited cross-cluster

connectivity (Noack 2009) (Figure 7).

The network was generated in VOSviewer us-

ing the association-strength normalization and full

counting method. Keywords were included based on

a minimum occurrence threshold of 5 appearances

in the regional dataset (n = 105 publications; n = 39

unique keywords. Links with very weak co-occur-

rence strength (total link strength < 2)were ltered

to improve visual clarity. Nodes represent author

keywords, with node size proportional to keyword

frequency. Colors denote clusters identied by the

VOSviewer modularity-based (Louvain-type) clus-

tering algorithm, revealing major thematic struc-

ture in southeast Asian literature: 1) Yellow cluster:

ecology-climate interface (climate change, ecosys-

tems, marine ecosystem, sh). 2) Green cluster:

sheries management and environmental drivers

(sheries, shery management, sustainable devel-

opment, surface waters). 3) Pink cluster: shery-de-

pendent indicators and variability drivers (Indian

Ocean, tuna shery, CPUE, catch statistics, ENSO,

climate variation). 4) Blue cluster: species-specif-

ic and biogeographic terms (tuna, Pacic Ocean,

spatial distribution, global warming). The spatial

structure of the map was generated using the Lin-

Log layout, which enhances cluster separation by

prioritizing attractive and repulsive forces among

strongly and weakly related keywords, respective-

ly. This visualization highlights the dominance of

Indian Ocean-centric, catch-based, sheries-driven

research in southeast Asia compared to more mech-

anistic and model-based global clusters (Figure 8).

Figure 6. Most prolic authors of publications on the subject.

No. of documents

024 6

Tian Y

Chen X

Jung S

Li J

LiuY

Jansen T

Oskarsson GJ

Go S

Ito S-I

MontevecchiWA

Authors

Marine and Fishery sciences 39 (2): xxx-xxx (2026)

Figure 8. Keyword co-occurrence network map for southeast Asian climate-sheries research related to mackerel and other

Scombridae species.

Figure 7. Keyword co-occurrence network map for global climate-sheries research related to mackerel and other Scombridae

species.

Haque et al.: Climate CHange impaCt, global researCH trend, and regional gaps in soutHeast asia 11

In contrast to global research in the Atlantic and

Pacic, which has progressed toward predictive

modeling, physiological studies, and integrated

socio-ecological assessments, southeast Asian cli-

mate-sheries research is still catch-based and de-

scriptive, concentrating on tuna/mackerel sheries

within the Indian Ocean framework, according to

the comparison of bibliographic maps (Table 1).

This leaves a visible gap: southeast Asia, where

reliance on sheries for food security is high, but

data or modeling investment lags, requires SDM-

based predictions, mechanistic studies, and socio-

economic integration.

Climate change themes identied in the global

research

The thematic cluster analysis and keyword

co-occurrence mapping revealed four dominant

global research themes related to the impacts of

climate change on mackerel: 1) Ocean warming

and distribution shifts, 2) Migration and spawn-

ing changes, 3) Ecosystem-wide trophic responses,

and 4) Physiological stress and behavioral impacts.

These clusters align with well-established ecologi-

cal evidence showing that warming, acidication,

and deoxygenation are reshaping pelagic ecosys-

tems worldwide. Studies highlight that rising sea

temperatures drive poleward species movements

(Astthorsson et al. 2012; Wang and Wu 2025), al-

ter spawning grounds (Jansen and Gislason 2013),

and cause contractions in traditional habitats (Yang

et al. 2022). Emerging evidence of rapid ocean

deoxygenation (Lu et al. 2024) and widespread

reef hypoxia (Pezner et al. 2023) further reinforces

the global research emphasis on environmental

stressors affecting mackerel habitat suitability and

recruitment.

Table 1. Comparison between the bibliometric analysis of Global and southeast Asian research.

Global Southeast Asia

SST = Sea Surface Temperature; ENSO = El-Niño Southern Oscillation; CPUE = Catch Per Unit Effort.

Core keywords

Research orientation

Data sources

Climate drivers

studied

Analytical approach

Ecological scope

Management

dimension

Research

development

Atlantic Ocean, Pacic Ocean, climate change,

pelagic sh, population dynamics, stock

assessment, physiology, climate models

Mechanistic, predictive, ecosystem-based

Multi-source data (survey data, ecological

monitoring, physiology, models, remote sensing)

Integrated drivers: warming, deoxygenation,

acidication, multi-factor climate models

Species Distribution Models (SDMs), spatio-

temporal models, ensemble climate projections

Ecosystem level focus (food webs, spawning,

physiology, ecosystem resilience)

Strong: stock assessment, adaptive sheries

management, socio-ecological integration

Higher data availability and modeling investment,

advanced, integrating ecology, modeling, and

management scenarios

Indian Ocean, Scombridae, tuna

shery, SST, ENSO, CPUE, catch

statistics.

Descriptive, monitoring-oriented

Fishery dependent data (catch, CPUE,

abundance, biomass, effort)

Broad variables: SST, ENSO, climate

variability

Statistical correlations, trend analysis

Species/shery level focus (mainly

tunas and mackerels)

Limited: mostly linked to catch trends

and variability

Often generalized, emerging in

methodological sophistication

Marine and Fishery sciences 39 (2): xxx-xxx (2026)

Distribution shifts and habitat loss as central

research themes

Across global publications, distribution shifts

associated with sea-surface temperature increases

appear consistently in high-frequency keywords

and tightly connected network clusters. Multiple

studies document northward expansions of Atlantic

and Chub mackerel (dos Santos Schmidt et al. 2024;

Han et al. 2024) and projected habitat losses of up to

80-90% under high emission scenarios for Scomb-

eromorus species (Yang et al. 2022). These ndings

correspond with the strong ‘warming-distribution

shift-habitat suitability’ cluster in the VOSviewer

network, demonstrating that habitat modelling and

mechanistic projections dominate global research.

Migration and spawning modications: a sec-

ondary but growing theme

Bibliometric results showed a medium-density

cluster associated with migration, spawning, re-

cruitment, and larval dispersal, reecting a substan-

tial research focus on phenological changes. Article

within this cluster reports earlier spawning (Brunel

et al. 2018), altered migration timing (Kanamori et

al. 2019), and climate-driven mismatches between

larvae and plankton blooms (Edwards and Rich-

ardson 2004). This articles depict how researchers

increasingly integrate biological observations with

climate variability, especially ENSO, highlighting a

trend toward process-based ecological studies, par-

ticularly in the Pacic and North Atlantic.

Ecosystem and trophic interactions: linking cli-

mate drivers to food web response

The third major cluster identied dealt with eco-

system and trophic interactions, including prey

availability, zooplankton dynamics, and predator

overlap. Highly cited global studies showed that

warming reduces the abundance of key copepods

(Calanus sp.) restructured plankton communities

(Neven 2024), and intensies competition among

pelagic predators (Ono et al. 2024). The co-occur-

rence network reected this through strong asso-

ciations between terms such as ‘plankton’, ‘troph-

ic’, ‘productivity’, and ‘recruitment’. These results

demonstrated that much of the global research land-

scape has moved beyond descriptive assessments

toward ecosystem-based and food web-integrated

approaches.

Physiological and behavioral responses: a small-

er but emerging theme

Although less central in keyword networks, a

growing cluster focused on physiological responses

such as altered growth, metabolic stress, and behav-

ioral modications linked to warming and acidi-

cation (Munday et al. 2009; Pecl et al. 2017). Stud-

ies reporting projected poleward shifts in thermal

habitat suitability for S. commerson (Wang and Wu

2025) and vulnerability of juveniles to both acidi-

cation and hypoxia (Wexler et al. 2023) aligned

with this research trend. These emerging studies

highlight a transition toward climate-physiology

integration in global sheries science.

Fisheries management and adaptation: policy

themes in global versus regional research

The bibliometric mapping also revealed a clear

difference between global and southeast Asian

articles. Globally, research connects climate im-

pacts to adaptive management, ecosystem-based

governance, and transboundary stock agreements.

This includes emphasis on climate-resilient MPAs

(Marine Protected Areas), quota adjustments, and

long-term monitoring (Lehodey et al. 2020; Bagsit

et al. 2021). However, southeast Asian publications

show limited focus on governance, instead empha-

sizing catch trends, CPUE, and descriptive stock

assessments. Global studies increasingly integrate

climate projections into policy frameworks (Pandey

and Joseph 2025), whereas regional research points

to persistent gaps in funding, monitoring capacity,

and institutional support. These ndings indicate

Haque et al.: Climate CHange impaCt, global researCH trend, and regional gaps in soutHeast asia 13

that climate-driven risks to mackerel sheries are

well documented at the global scale, but scientic,

nancial, and governance constraints continue to

limit adaptive responses in southeast Asia.

Research prospects in southeast Asia

In order to improve knowledge and management

of mackerel sheries in light of climate change, a

number of important research gaps need to be lled.

The long term effects of climate variability on the

distribution and productivity of mackerel stocks,

which are still poorly understood in southeast Asia,

need to be studied at the regional level (Breitburg

et al. 2018; Dongyu 2024). The physiological and

behavioral responses of mackerel to shifting ocean

circumstances, such as rising sea temperatures and

falling oxygen levels, need further research, espe-

cially in relation to migration patterns, predator

avoidance, and larval survival (Breitburg et al. 2018;

Wexler et al. 2023). Despite growing evidence that

coastal populations in the Indo-Pacic region are

extremely vulnerable to climatic shocks, there are

currently few studies looking at the socioeconomic

implications of declining mackerel stocks, partic-

ularly the exibility and resilience of small-scale

shermen (Pecl et al. 2017; Chamsai and Wanchana

2022). To ensure the sustainability of mackerel sh-

eries, studies on the efcacy of adaptive sheries

management techniques, such as ecosystem-based

management and cooperative regional governance,

are required (Cheung et al. 2013). Few studies have

examined how climate change impacts prey species

availability and composition for mackerel, which is

important for forecasting population patterns in the

future (Doney et al. 2012; Wang and Wu 2025). De-

veloping climate resilient management frameworks

for mackerel sheries, these research gaps need to

be lled by integrated ecological, socioeconomic,

and governance studies.

These gaps underscore a pressing need for in-

tegrated ecological, socioeconomic, and gover-

nance research to support the development of cli-

mate-resilient sheries management frameworks

for mackerel in southeast Asia. Aligning regional

research with global methodological advances, par-

ticularly through SDMs, long-term monitoring, and

socio-ecological assessments, would signicantly

improve the scientic basis for sustainable manage-

ment under accelerating climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

While global studies increasingly employ mech-

anistic models, ecosystem-based approaches, and

integrated climate projections, southeast Asian re-

search remains largely descriptive and catch-based.

The keyword structures and thematic clusters con-

rm a persistent regional gap in modelling capacity,

physiological research, and socio-ecological assess-

ment, despite the region’s strong dependence on

mackerel sheries for food security. Closing this

gap will require strengthening scientic infrastruc-

ture, improving data availability, and expanding

interdisciplinary work on species distribution mod-

elling, multi-stressor climate analysis, and socioec-

onomic vulnerability. The ndings also highlight

the need for adaptive, evidence-driven sheries

governance, including ecosystem-based manage-

ment and coordinated regional monitoring. Overall,

a more integrated research and policy landscape is

essential for building climate resilience in southeast

Asian mackerel sheries. Investing in modelling,

collaborative networks, and long-term monitoring

will support sustainable harvest and help safeguard

coastal communities.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This work was funded by the Fundamental Re-

search Grant Scheme (FRGS) with project reference

FRGS/1/2024/WAS05/UMT/02/4, and the authors

gratefully acknowledge the Malaysian Ministry of

Higher Education (MoHE) for their support.

Marine and Fishery sciences 39 (2): xxx-xxx (2026)

Conicts of interest

The author(s) declare(s) that there is no conict

of interest regarding the publication of this paper.

Author contributions

Mohammad Ekramul Haque: writing the original

manuscript and analyzing the data. Shahadat Hos-

sain: reviewed and analysed the data. Tun Nurul

Aimi Mat Jaafar: review and edit the draft. Ying

Giat Seah: review and edit the draft. Siti Azizah

Mohd Nor: review and edit the draft. Nazia Abdul

Kadar: review and edit the draft. Nur Fadli: review

and edit the draft. Darlina Md Naim: review and

edit the draft. Helena Khatoon: review and edit

the draft. Ahasan Habib: conceptualised the topic,

reviewed, edited, and supervised.

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